The produced-versus-supplied gap is the detail that stays with us: at 10.56 million produced and 9.2 million supplied in October, Saudi Arabia was sending roughly 1.4 million barrels a day somewhere other than the market, about 40 million barrels a month at that pace. Meanwhile the countries with the thinnest cover gave up the most and face buying back at an unknown price. Do you read the Saudi build as a normal cushion rebuild, or as positioning for the 2027 replenishment demand OPEC already names?
Thanks. That gap stayed with me too. OPEC's footnotes don't say where the oil went, so the report can't settle it. What they do show is a swing. Saudi Arabia produced more than it supplied in July, less in August, then more again in September and October. Over those four months the net comes to close to 50 million barrels. That looks like a buffer drawn down and refilled. If the gap holds through November and December, I'd read it as positioning for 2027.
Thanks, the four-month swing is a cleaner read than any single month. A buffer drawn down in August and refilled after fits what the footnotes can show. We'll be watching the November and December tables for exactly that signal.
The produced-versus-supplied gap is the detail that stays with us: at 10.56 million produced and 9.2 million supplied in October, Saudi Arabia was sending roughly 1.4 million barrels a day somewhere other than the market, about 40 million barrels a month at that pace. Meanwhile the countries with the thinnest cover gave up the most and face buying back at an unknown price. Do you read the Saudi build as a normal cushion rebuild, or as positioning for the 2027 replenishment demand OPEC already names?
Thanks. That gap stayed with me too. OPEC's footnotes don't say where the oil went, so the report can't settle it. What they do show is a swing. Saudi Arabia produced more than it supplied in July, less in August, then more again in September and October. Over those four months the net comes to close to 50 million barrels. That looks like a buffer drawn down and refilled. If the gap holds through November and December, I'd read it as positioning for 2027.
Thanks, the four-month swing is a cleaner read than any single month. A buffer drawn down in August and refilled after fits what the footnotes can show. We'll be watching the November and December tables for exactly that signal.