Notebook
My essays and notes on economics, markets, politics, power, books, documents, and the machinery beneath events.
The Sanctions List at the Border
The EU’s proposed sanctions list brings asset freezes and travel bans into migration control, extending state power across banks and borders before courts have tested the evidence against named suspects.
On a power held in reserve
An elderly priest’s arrest exposed a power long embedded in British law. The statute remained unchanged. Only the decision to use it shifted, redrawing the boundary between protest and terrorism.
Two Republics, Part Two: Celebration
America’s 250th anniversary speech shows how old anti-communist language can return to public life, narrowing political disagreement and turning opponents into internal enemies.
Two Republics, Part One: Mourning
Iran’s state funeral for Ayatollah Khamenei reveals how political power uses ritual, mourning, and public ceremony to project continuity, legitimacy, and authority after war, succession, and uncertainty.
When the Bottom Half Becomes a Line
A Federal Reserve wealth chart shows the bottom half of America almost disappearing, not because the economy failed to grow, but because ownership concentrated as growth expanded over recent decades.
Below the Level of Shelter
A note on Gaza, shelter, and the politics of blocked materials, where clay, rubble, ash, and glass show what it means to live below the level of infrastructure.
America’s Weak Center
America’s weak center is giving way to energized populist edges, as Trump nationalism and Mamdani-style left politics expose a deeper collapse of trust in the old political machinery.
Hormuz Has Changed
Drone strikes and U.S. retaliation expose how the Strait of Hormuz’s reopening did not restore normal shipping; it created contested passage, reshaping shipping risks, geopolitical power, and global oil security.
When AI Learns It Has a Flag
A note on US state intervention in frontier AI, and why foreign businesses using American models now face political, regulatory, and infrastructure risk.
The Court Looks Away
The Supreme Court’s immigration rulings show how protection can remain formally legal while being narrowed through discretion, procedure, deference, and the state’s refusal to see racial power.
Public Money, Private Rule
SpaceX shows how public markets can price belief without receiving control, turning a small float, founder power, and index machinery into a public valuation for a private regime of command.
Public Stock, Private Monarchy
SpaceX shows how a company can enter public markets without accepting public control: a tiny float, declared price, locked governance, and a market willing to turn belief into capital today.
The Machine and the Commons
AI can widen access to knowledge while enclosing its ownership. The same machine that helps people understand the world can also concentrate the infrastructure through which understanding is produced today.
The Worker in the Calculation
The worker is always partly in the way of the calculation. Firms need labour, but they also need to discipline, cheapen, replace, monitor, or automate it wherever possible when profitable.
The Fingerprints of Shortage
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz does not mean the oil crisis simply disappears. It means the crisis changes shape.
The Way We Are Governed Enters the Day
Good and bad government do not remain abstract. They enter the day through prices, laws, wages, schools, hospitals, streets, bills, and the private life we think is separate.
When Peace Means Insurance
Peace does not simply reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It moves the war into insurance, sanctions, naval protection, shipping routes and the fragile machinery that lets oil move again.
Oil, Hormuz, and the price of reopening
Oil fell because markets began pricing a reopened Strait of Hormuz, not peace: a temporary bargain marked down interruption risk while leaving the deeper security structure intact.
Inflation, Cash and Hormuz
Inflation, Hormuz, and the cash boom are part of the same signal: when prices, geopolitics, and risk collide, cash becomes caution.