Notebook
Essays and notes on political economy, books, history, and the forces that shape how people live.
Hormuz Has Changed
Drone strikes and U.S. retaliation expose how the Strait of Hormuz’s reopening did not restore normal shipping; it created contested passage, reshaping shipping risks, geopolitical power, and global oil security.
When Peace Means Insurance
Peace does not simply reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It moves the war into insurance, sanctions, naval protection, shipping routes and the fragile machinery that lets oil move again.
Oil, Hormuz, and the price of reopening
Oil fell because markets began pricing a reopened Strait of Hormuz, not peace: a temporary bargain marked down interruption risk while leaving the deeper security structure intact.
Inflation, Cash and Hormuz
Inflation, Hormuz, and the cash boom are part of the same signal: when prices, geopolitics, and risk collide, cash becomes caution.