Systems Letter
Three times a week — Monday, Wednesday, and Friday — I send out a short note. Each one takes a current economic or political event and uses it as a doorway into the systems shaping it.
August 18, 2025: Sequence as Leverage
The center of gravity has moved from stopping fire to designing an end state. What was framed as a ceasefire-first path now runs the other way: a “comprehensive” settlement first, a ceasefire after. That procedural inversion matters because it resets who holds leverage when it can be used, and what must be priced in before guns go quiet.