Notebook
Writer. Essays and notes on how the world works and how we live in it.
War Enters the Balance Sheet
Energy shocks from war become balance‑sheet and budget problems rather than battlefields. World Bank downgrades mark long‑term damage. Rich countries absorb costs while poorer ones face deficits and austerity.
The License as Chokepoint
Tightening export licences turned Chinese battery‑metal supplies into chokepoints. The note shows how the licence itself becomes the weapon, making critical minerals unobtainable and highlighting the urgency of diversification.
The Combatant as Mediator
Trump’s claim to mediate the Iran‑Israel war is mocked: the United States is a combatant, conducting strikes and widening the conflict. Combatants cannot mediate; their rhetoric conceals their role.
When Productive Capacity Becomes Security Strategy
The Pentagon’s list of Chinese military companies now includes tech and EV firms, showing productive capacity itself is being treated as a security target and blurring commercial with military.
Trump cuts will kill
Trump’s planned cuts to USAID, PEPFAR and Medicaid will translate into malaria, HIV and maternal deaths. Bureaucratic talk of “efficiency” masks the reality: slashing aid will kill people.
The War in the Sentence
Washington insists the Iran war is over even as Hormuz remains threatened and oil spikes. The note contrasts this declaration of peace with realities in shipping lanes and markets.
When a Majority Feels Itself Becoming a Minority
Census projections show whites will be a minority. Status‑loss fuels anti‑democratic sentiment and immigration hardliners, raising the question: what happens when a majority feels itself becoming a minority?
Oil and the Cost of Passage
After threats in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices spiked. The note says the real story is the cost of passage—narrow waterways, naval power, insurance and risk—not simply the price.
Marx and the spectre.
The note recalls Marx’s observation that “Communist” began as a smear and concludes that when labels like “woke” or “fascist” silence debate, the answer is to publish openly.
Trump and Iran
The note exposes the hollowness of Trump’s “ceasefire” claim: U.S. forces bombed a girls’ school, blockaded ports and issued threats; there is no ceasefire, only rebranded war.
The Pope’s Words
The note praises Pope Francis’ Cameroon speech condemning those who use religion to justify war. Contrasting billions spent on bombs with scarce healing funds, he called for conscience and care.
The American project.
The note argues the American project is fracturing; Trump widened cracks but successors will exploit them. Institutions decay and only patient, long‑term work, not quick fixes, can repair the tear.