Notebook
Writer. Essays and notes on how the world works and how we live in it.
What Israel's Election Offers the Palestinians
Israel’s October 27 election left Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot short of a majority. This essay asks whether any coalition would change life for Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel.
The Price Nobody Pays
Brent crude prices tell only part of the oil shortage story. War, shipping costs and scarce refining capacity widen the gaps between headline benchmarks, physical cargoes and wholesale diesel prices.
What Washington Sees
Ukraine's air defense depends on American missile warnings, Starlink bandwidth and Patriot interceptors. Washington's control of these systems shapes Kyiv's defense and limits Ukrainian pressure on Russia during the war.
The Fingerprints of Shortage
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz does not mean the oil crisis simply disappears. It means the crisis changes shape.
War Enters the Balance Sheet
Energy shocks from war become balance‑sheet and budget problems rather than battlefields. World Bank downgrades mark long‑term damage. Rich countries absorb costs while poorer ones face deficits and austerity.
The Combatant as Mediator
Trump’s claim to mediate the Iran‑Israel war is mocked: the United States is a combatant, conducting strikes and widening the conflict. Combatants cannot mediate; their rhetoric conceals their role.
When Productive Capacity Becomes Security Strategy
The Pentagon’s list of Chinese military companies now includes tech and EV firms, showing productive capacity itself is being treated as a security target and blurring commercial with military.
Steinbeck on Monsters
Invoking Steinbeck’s “monsters born to human parents,” the essay laments leaders who starve and bomb children in Gaza, Iran and Ukraine while spending on war and neglecting food and medicine.
Trump and Iran
The note exposes the hollowness of Trump’s “ceasefire” claim: U.S. forces bombed a girls’ school, blockaded ports and issued threats; there is no ceasefire, only rebranded war.
The Strait and the Trap
Invoking Thucydides, the essay shows Iran’s harassment of ships in the Strait of Hormuz turned insurance risk into strategic leverage after US‑Israeli strikes, revealing a structural trap beyond military strength.