Nothing Was Sold
Nothing Was Sold
Nothing Was Sold
The US trade deficit narrowed to $29.4 billion in October 2025—the smallest gap since mid-2009 and a thirty-nine percent narrowing from September 2025. Economists surveyed by Reuters expected approximately $59 billion. Pharmaceutical imports dropped $14.3 billion. Gold exports rose $6.8 billion. Foreign investors pulled $37.3 billion out of the United States in October and foreign central banks sold $10.1 billion in long-term securities. The deficit shrank. The money left. The surprise was in the details. Gold was part of the surprise.
On November 25, 2024, Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico. Gold was not mentioned. Within weeks, gold began moving into American vaults.
Swiss gold exports rose elevenfold from November to December. In January 2025, Switzerland shipped 192.9 tonnes to the U.S.—a record. The increase was large enough to distort the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecasting model. By late January, COMEX warehouse inventories reached 30 million troy ounces.
In London, vault holdings dropped 210 tonnes by end-February. On 6 February, at the MPC press conference, the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said ‘all the existing slots are booked up.’ Waiting times rose from a few days to between four and eight weeks. Bloomberg reported that the Bank of England holds about 400,000 gold bars in nine underground vaults beneath its Threadneedle Street headquarters in the City of London. Commuters on the Central Line pass so close to these vaults that staff inside sometimes report hearing a dull hum as the trains go by. A team of about 15 highly-vetted staff handle withdrawals—they call the process “digging out” the bars. In January 2025, staff dug out about 8,145 bars, averaging 370 per working day. Each bar weighs around 12.4 kilograms, approximately 400 troy ounces. By March 2025, COMEX inventories had climbed 153% to 43.3 million ounces.
On April 2, 2025—dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump—the White House released a fact sheet explicitly listing bullion among exemptions from both the 10% baseline tariff and country-specific reciprocal tariffs. In August 2025 when a 39% tariff on Swiss imports took effect, US Customs suggested gold bars might be subject to duties. But on August 11, Trump posted on Truth Social: "Gold will not be Tariffed!” On September 5, an executive order reinforced gold bullion’s tariff exemption globally by adding bullion-related articles to the Annex II exemption list with specific HTS codes. On November 14, a US-Swiss trade deal was announced. Ten days earlier, on November 4, Swiss business executives led by MKS SA chief executive Marwan Shakarchi had presented Trump with a personalised 1-kilogram gold bar during an Oval Office meeting. Switzerland was aligned.
In October 2025, U.S. gold bar exports surged by $6.8 billion and gold imports fell by $1.4 billion-a net swing of $8.2 billion. Gold alone accounted for 44% of the deficit reduction. The metal moved back to London, back to Asia, and into the hands of central banks that accumulated gold throughout 2025. Gold bar movements create no new factories and no new jobs and the Bureau of Economic Analysis excludes gold bar movements from GDP calculations. The trade balance includes the movement.
The deficit shrank. Nothing was built. Nothing was sold.