Trump's First Year Back: The World Tilts Toward Beijing
Trump's First Year Back: The World Tilts Toward Beijing
Trump's First Year Back: The World Tilts Toward Beijing
A new poll from the European Council on Foreign Relations surveyed nearly 26,000 people across 21 countries in November 2025. The findings are stark. Across the globe, people expect China's influence to grow over the next decade. They do not fear this. In South Africa, over a third now see China as an ally. In India, nearly half view Beijing as either an ally or a necessary partner. Brazil and Turkey expect their ties with China to strengthen. The multipolar world that many talked about for years has arrived, and most of the world seems content to live in it.
The shift is not because China has suddenly become more appealing. It is because America, under Trump, has become less so. His aggressive posture toward allies and his transactional approach to foreign policy have driven countries closer to Beijing. The ECFR authors put it plainly: Trump did not go into politics to make China great again, but that is what he has done.
The numbers on America are telling. Few people anywhere expect American power to grow. In China, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States itself, one in four people expect it to decline. Only 16 percent of EU citizens now consider America an ally. Twenty percent see it as a rival or enemy. A year ago, 84 percent of Indians thought Trump's return would be good for their country. Now 53 percent do. The welcome has worn thin.
What strikes me most in this data is how Russia has recalibrated. Russians now see Europe as their chief adversary, not America. In 2023, 64 percent of Russians called the United States an adversary. By November 2025, that figure had fallen to 37 percent. The Trump administration's efforts to restore ties with Moscow appear to have worked, at least in shaping Russian opinion. The corollary is that Ukrainians have turned toward Europe. Thirty-nine percent of Ukrainians now call the EU an ally. Only 18 percent say the same of America. Two years ago, the transatlantic West stood together behind Kyiv. That unity is gone.
The Chinese see the split clearly. Most people in China now view the EU's policies toward their country as different from America's. This is a change from earlier surveys. Beijing regards Europe not as a threat but as a potential partner, another pole in a world no longer run from Washington. Sixty-one percent of Chinese see the United States as a threat. Only 19 percent say the same of the EU.
Europeans themselves are grim. Majorities doubt the EU can deal on equal terms with either America or China. They worry about Russian aggression, a major European war, and nuclear weapons. Yet they support higher defence spending, conscription, and even a European nuclear deterrent. The awareness is there. The confidence is not.
The question now is whether European leaders will tell their publics the truth about where things stand. The ECFR authors argue that more honesty is essential. I think they are right. The transatlantic relationship as it existed is finished. Flattering Trump will not restore it. The choices ahead are harder than anything Europe has faced since the Cold War, and pretending otherwise only delays the reckoning.
What I take from this poll is that the world has moved, and Europe has not yet decided where it belongs. China is rising. America is pulling back. The rest of the world is learning to live without a hegemon. Europeans still seem to be waiting for someone to tell them what to do. That era is over.
Read the report: Here