Essays
Essays on how economic, political, and cultural forces shape how we live.
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The Ground Shifted
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 130,000 new jobs in January 2026. The confidence interval on that number is plus or minus 122,000. That means the true gain could be as low as 8,000. It could be as high as 252,000. The headline was treated as good news. It is noise.
Trump's First Year Back: The World Tilts Toward Beijing
Trump's First Year Back: The World Tilts Toward Beijing
Twelve Signatures, One Message
Central bankers do not sign public letters. They do not intervene in other countries' domestic politics. But in January 2026, twelve of them did exactly that to defend Jerome Powell. The dollar's dominance in global finance made the Fed's independence their fight too.
NATO Says Nothing.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has remained silent on Donald Trump's threats to annex Greenland. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen sought support in Berlin and Paris while NATO headquarters in Brussels said nothing. This essay examines why Rutte cannot speak when one member threatens another.
He Has Determined.
On Wednesday, 7 January 2026, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he had ‘determined’ the military budget for 2027 should be $1.5 trillion—not $1 trillion—for ‘the Good’ of the country in ‘these very troubled and dangerous’ times.
The Capture
US Special Forces entered Caracas on Saturday night and seized Nicolás Maduro at the door of a safe room inside a military base. Thirty-two Cuban military and intelligence personnel died in the operation.
The Return and the Rupture: Trump’s Inauguration as Inflection Point
The inauguration was not a beginning. It was a consequence.