Notebook

Essays and notes on political economy, books, history, and the forces that shape how people live.

Energy Werner Mouton Energy Werner Mouton

A Quota Cannot Open a Strait

OPEC+ can raise oil quotas, but it cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump, Iran, war and shipping routes determine whether oil reaches households—and at what price across the world.

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War & Conflict Werner Mouton War & Conflict Werner Mouton

The Strait and the Trap

 Invoking Thucydides, the essay shows Iran’s harassment of ships in the Strait of Hormuz turned insurance risk into strategic leverage after US‑Israeli strikes, revealing a structural trap beyond military strength.

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